The Academy is set to reveal this year’s nominations on Thursday, and all the winners from Sunday night’s ceremony are crossing their fingers that their trophy is one step closer to Oscar gold (this could be your year, Leonardo DiCaprio!)
It’s widely believed that the Globes predict the Oscars, despite industry critics (including four-time host Ricky Gervais) that blast the award show’s credibility.
But statistically speaking, the Globes have a pretty solid track record of lining up with the Oscars — in SOME categories anyway!
The Globes have the odds in their favor in the Best Picture, Best Actor, and Best Actress categories. Each is split into a Drama and Musical/Comedy sub-category, which means it has two winners who can snag an Oscar!
This advantage has fared much better for the leading ladies — in the past 25 years, 88% of the GG winners for Best Actress later went on to win Oscars that same year!
The men were a bit more unpredictable — in the same timespan, only 64% of Best Actor winners at the Globes won Oscars!
The statistic drops even more for Best Picture! Even though the Globes have two winners, it only synced up 56% with the Oscars in the past 25 years!
In Supporting categories on the other hand, the Globes are much better at picking men than women — getting Best Supporting Actor right 72% of the time, but only correctly predicting Supporting Actress 60%!
The biggest tossup is in the Best Director category — only 52% of Globes winners won an Oscar for directing!
Sometimes, the Hollywood Foreign Press Association is WAY off from the Academy’s votes — in 2014, David O. Russell‘s American Hustle dominated at the Globes, but it was 12 Years A Slave that reigned supreme at the Oscars!
The moral of the story here is NOT to use this year’s Golden Globes winners as a sure bet when filling out your Oscar ballot — except maybe for Brie Larson…
[Image via NBC.]