We may be on the precipice of a catastrophic Ebola outbreak, according to a leading expert.
It’s been an aggressive year for Ebola transmission as cases surge to more than 2,550 across Africa resulting in over 1,030 deaths. The heat of the life-threatening virus has been spreading in the Democratic Republic of Congo, where numbers have steadily climbed to more than 1,000 in the country alone. While work has been done to limit the spread of the virus, Ebola expert Dr. Simon Mardel worries we could be on the cusp of an “unprecedented” outbreak.
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In an interview with The Independent published on Wednesday, Dr. Mardel, who was on the front lines during the 2000 Ebola outbreak in Gulu, northern Uganda, during which he lost more than 20 esteemed colleagues including the superintendent of the hospital where he worked, weighed in on what we’re seeing with today’s outbreak. As we’ve been following, the current outbreak is being caused by the Bundibugyo strain of the virus, which currently has no vaccine. Dr. Mardel believes we may be heading toward a disaster WORSE than the deadly 2014-2015 outbreak, which claimed the lives of more than 11,000 people. In his words, seeing what’s happening with how quickly the virus is spreading is like “watching a train crash in slow motion.”
“I think it’s safe to say it could be unprecedented. The words an epidemiologist should never want to hear are ‘unrecognized chains of transmission.’”
The doctor, who retired from his National Health Service (NHS) role last month, is becoming increasingly unsettled by seeing similar mistakes being made in prevention and containment, including a lack of tracing and infection control:
“I’m worried that a lot of the lessons haven’t been learned.”
The health professional believes it’s “only a matter of time” until the virus spreads beyond Africa to countries and healthcare facilities lacking proper training and preparation.
As we’ve previously reported, health agencies are working tirelessly to treat infected patients and contain the virus, but at least two Americans have already been confirmed to have contracted Ebola after trips to the DRC. Luckily, they have both overcome the infection through treatment, but other potential cases have popped up in London, Brazil and Italy.
Dr. Mardel’s current fears center largely on Nigeria, Africa’s most populous country, where Ebola was narrowly contained in 2014. He attributes it to good fortune, but doesn’t anticipate lighting striking in the same place twice, per say.
“The potential to amplify in hospitals is phenomenal. You could get one in and potentially 20 or 30 or even 50 coming out.”
So how can this be stopped, or at the very least slowed? Dr. Madel says speed is the most crucial key:
“All the data shows that by five days, and by some markers three days, the die is cast and you can start to see who is going to die.”
However, a persisting thought in the back of his head makes him believe this outbreak may already be past the point of control:
“They are lagging behind. And if that is the case, even though DRC has a lot of experience with Ebola, then I think we are in trouble.”
If it’s not one public health emergency, it’s another…
What are your thoughts on Dr. Mardel’s assessment? Be sure to let us know in the comments down below.
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